New EirGrid analysis examines the balance between electricity demand and supply in Ireland over 10 years

EirGrid, which is responsible for managing, planning and operating Ireland’s high voltage electricity grid and market, has released the All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment, which looks at the balance between electricity demand and supply in Ireland over 10 years. 

The assessment is an evolution of the annual Generation Capacity Statement (GCS), supported by the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) and implements an updated methodology. 

This updated methodology is required to align with the European modelling framework and regulatory requirements, ensuring the analysis is more consistent with other European countries. 

It also ensures the analysis better represents the evolving power system where the mix of technologies is becoming increasingly diverse with greater levels of renewable generation, energy storage, demand side flexibility and interconnection. 

Since 2016, EirGrid has warned of an increasing tightness between supply and demand. In this context, the objective of the Resource Adequacy Assessment is to allow industry, government, regulators and other stakeholders to facilitate the transition to renewable energy, supporting social and economic growth into the future, while ensuring the secure and resilient operation of the electricity system. 

The assessment looks at demand (what Ireland needs), generation (what can supply the demand) and adequacy (the potential gap between the two). 

Each year, EirGrid ‘freeze’ the data on which the calculations are measured to ensure an accurate assessment is provided. 

The freeze date for demand data for this report was the 30th of April 2024. EirGrid is cognisant of the fact that this data freeze predated the formation of a new government in December 2024 and the publication and adoption of the Programme for Government in January 2025. 

In the Programme for Government ‘Securing Ireland’s Future’ the government puts emphasis on accelerating housing supply which will increase electricity demand. 

This additional electricity demand will be considered in the next edition of the All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment. 

This year’s assessment shows that over the next few years, there is a potentially challenging outlook in Ireland. 

The report states that capacity market auctions are still an option to procure new generation which could address the capacity shortfalls. Over the next decade, demand for electricity is forecast to grow considerably. In the median scenario, electricity demand is forecast to increase by 45% between 2023 and 2034. 

In this scenario, the peak demand is forecast to increase by 24% by 2034 compared with 2023 levels. 

For context, Ireland recorded a new peak demand of 6,024 MW on Wednesday 8 January 2025. 

This was the first time that peak electricity demand passed the 6,000 MW mark. Demand first passed the 5,000 MW mark during the extreme cold snap of December 2010. 

By 2034, EirGrid’s analysis shows that it will be above the 7,000 MW mark. 

Our economy and society are changing. Looking at the demand profile, it’s anticipated the electrification of heat and transport will become significant factors towards the end of the decade. 

The proportion of overall electricity demand from heat pumps is estimated to increase from 3% in 2025 to 10% by 2034, while the proportion of overall demand from electric cars will rise from 1% to 8% during this same period. 

EirGrid’s analysis shows that further new electricity generation will be required to secure the transition to high levels of renewable electricity over the coming decades. 

A balanced portfolio of new capacity is required, including the need for new cleaner gas fired generation which is renewable gas ready and can supply electricity at times when the wind and solar generation is low. 

When assessing adequacy, the report looks at two different scenarios, one based on normal operating conditions and one factoring in more challenging conditions. From 2025 to 2027, both scenarios show that additional capacity is required, which will be provided through the CRU’s Security of Supply Programme Measures. 

This programme includes the availability of Temporary Emergency Generation which can be called upon in the event of a shortfall in capacity and where alerts on the system are likely. 

This, along with other measures in the programme, have helped to address the adequacy challenge over this period. 

The delivery of the new Celtic Interconnector, which will connect the electricity transmission systems of Ireland and France, along with new gas capacity, improves the outlook for the period of 2027 to 2028. 

Beyond this, for 2028 to 2032, there will be sufficient capacity to operate the system under normal conditions, but a gap of 600-800 MW under more challenging conditions. From 2032 to 2034, additional capacity is required in the range of 100-1000 MW across both scenarios. 

Eoin Kennedy, Director of Innovation and Planning at EirGrid, said: “As we transition to a renewable-led transmission system, which will benefit the economy and wider society, the electricity industry will have to find new ways to meet the increasing need for energy without relying mainly on burning fossil fuels. 

“New government policies will help to guide this transition, as electricity demand increases out to 2030. The changing demand and generation supply landscape will require coordinated management of both the volume and type of new capacity, alongside new ways of managing increasing demand to ensure security of supply. 

“Our analysis shows that towards the end of the decade, electricity demand from electric vehicles is expected to grow significantly. 

“Similarly, the residential sector is expected to account for the majority of electrified heating demand through the installation of heat pumps. In the short term, the CRU’s security of supply measures will help to address the adequacy challenges. 

“Beyond this, it’s important that the capacity market delivers new capacity in a timely fashion, and the type and volume of capacity needed to underpin the energy transition.”